This political campaign just gets crazier by the minute.
As I watch this political campaign play out I can’t help but think that this is one of those times in our nation’s history that they will be discussing years from now. And when they do those who lived through it will say that the one thing everybody final agreed on was that nobody knew what in the hell was going on.
I think we can all agree that this is a “change” campaign. People are fed up with politics as usual. How else do you describe the rise of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders? Trying to predict what happens next is impossible because every day something occurs that defies conventional political wisdom.
Take a look at the events that played out over the past 72 hours.
Republicans staged their ninth presidential debate. The sophomoric food fight that played out on stage was more in line with a WWF match than a campaign for the highest office in the land. By most standards Donald Trump was horrible. Trump called Ted Cruz a liar…several times. Trump also went where no Republican has ever dared to go before. Trump blamed George W. Bush for the disastrous war in Iraq and refuted the GOP mantra that: “Bush kept us safe.” “The towers came down under Bush’s reign. He didn’t keep us safe.”
Coming out of that debate you had to feel like Trump had just administered a self-inflicted mortal wound. Finally…this was the gaff that would bring The Donald down.
Conventional wisdom would have most candidates spending the next day walking those statements back. Not trump. He called Cruz a liar again and threatened to file a lawsuit seeking clarification on Cruz’ eligibility to hold office. (Cruz was born of an American mother on Canadian soil. The meaning of the constitutional requirement that a person must be a “natural born” citizen to hold office has never been litigated in court.) Trump also doubled down on his tirade against the Bush brothers; saying of the former president: “If he spent all his time at the beach we would have been better off.”
All of this erupted in the great state of South Carolina…a state where the military is king and the Bush family is beloved. One would expect Trump to take a heavy hit for his behavior.
Post-debate polls show Trumps 20+ point lead among South Carolina voters…unchanged.
As I said…this is a “change” campaign. The electorate is fed up with the political establishment and politics as usual. Hence the rise of Trump and Sanders. Out on the stump Hillary Clinton is doing her best to paint herself as an anti-establishment candidate. So at a time when “establishment = bad” why is Hillary Clinton bragging that she has the endorsement of 40 sitting United States Senators and over 100 Congressman? Why is her #1 surrogate on the stump the former 42nd President of the United States…and why is Jeb paling around South Carolina with the 43rd?
Then there is the matter of money. The Citizen United Supreme Court decision was supposed to have paved the way for our elections to be bought by the richest families and corporations. Unlimited funds pouring in from the wealthy was supposed to bring about end of our democracy. The Clinton and Sanders campaigns have each raised roughly $75 million in campaign contributions. Clinton’s campaign coffers are filled by a big money Super PAC. But Sanders does not have a Super PAC. His campaign is fueled by over 3 million individual small contributions averaging $27/each.
Jeb Bush has a Super PAC that has raised over $140 million. Billionaire Donald Trump doesn’t have a Super PAC. Trump is using his own money to fund the campaign. Bush has spent roughly 50% of his money already. Trump has spent next to nothing; relying on the free media coverage that follows him wherever he goes.
Latest national polls – Trump 35%…Bush 7%.
Here’s the thing. If someone tries to tell you that they know how this campaign is going to play out; just be polite and nod your head. The truth is…they don’t know.
Nobody knows!
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